
Originally Posted by
vinu
Hi Deba,
The proposed project in which you are involved in is an interesting theme and also a useful research component.
With the prescribed salinity observations, it might be possible to 'hindcaste' or 'nowcaste' the precipitation. The insitu salinity over the ocean is 'shaken', mainly by (1) Evaporation, (2) Precipitaition (3) Vertical Mixing and (4) the horizontal advection (that means the water visiting/departing into/from your area of consideration. Or, if we put these in a proper balance, it would be,
Evolution of Salinity + Advection + Mixing = Evap. - Precip.
This is the usual way of modeling the Salinity, provided the 'Forcing' is the R.H.S of the above equation. The first term in the L.H.S and the two terms in the R.H.S are the time-dependent and others are state dependent. Now, if we do an inversion of the above equation, (i.e. Evap-Pricip. is taken to the L.H.S and Evolution is Salinity is pushed to the R.H.S, ) and do a 'Back-ward' integration, certainly you should reach the Preicipitation, provided you are equipped with correct estimation of Advection, Mixing and Evaporation. You can not integrate this new set of equation Forward, because, the sate of the Atmosphere (the so called Precipitation in your excersice) is not determined by the insitue condition of the Ocean. This is my personnel opinion only. Im not sure, wheather this is a realistic method or a feasible model either. Also this is not a "Pricipitation forecast".
A a coupled ocean-atmosphere boundary layer model will be a more realistic approach. Also, you have to dig, wheather a "forecast is being done for preicipitation" in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In such a model, the sate of the atmospher is prescribing from the ocean and at the same time the state of the ocean is prescribing from the atmosphere.
You can seek better advice from Prof. Debasis Sengupta (IISc, Bangalore) (dsen#caos.iisc.ernet.in). Also, it woule be helpful, if you discuss with Bulusu Subrahmanyan, FSU, Florida, (sub#caops.fsu.edu).
-Thanks
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