rocksea
8th August 2008, 10:25 AM
Workshop on Reducing the Uncertainty in the Prediction of Global Warming
January 12-16 , 2009
Organizers: Isaac Held, Eli Tziperman
Confirmed lecturers:
Brian Mapes University of Miami
Sylvie Joussaume LSCE, France
Dan Schrag Harvard
Dennis Hartmann University of Washington, Seattle
Eli Tziperman Harvard
Hezi Gildor Weizmann Institute
Isaac Held GFDL, Princeton
Jim McWilliams UCLA
Jochem Marotzke MPI, Hamburg
Kerry Emanuel MIT
Peter Huybers Harvard
The range of warming predicted for the globally averaged surface temperature as a result of a doubling of CO2 due to human activities has been around 1.5-4.5 degree Celsius for over 20 years now. As we learn more about the climate system, the corresponding models become more detailed and realistic but the range of predicted warming has not decreased substantially. The aim of the workshop is to discuss explicit ideas on reducing uncertainty. Such ideas can be classified into two groups, which we might call reductive and holistic. The first consists of improving the parametrization of processes that occur on a scale too small to be modeled explicitly, such as ocean mixing, clouds etc. The second uses observations (past climate variability on all time scales, the observed response of climate to recent volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo, the warming over the 20th century, etc) to tell us something about climate sensitivity. The workshop will combine individuals involved in the effort to minimize climate prediction uncertainty using both approaches, in the hope of stimulating a discussion between these two communities, and to educate a group of advanced graduate students and post docs to be aware of both approaches, their strengths and their weaknesses. Specific hypotheses for the lack of progress in reducing uncertainty will be discussed, including arguments on the structural stability of climate models with respect to parameterized processes, as well as approaches which might be taken to address this problem in the near future. The format will be of a few detailed lectures a day, allowing for a large portion of time dedicated to informal discussions among the lecturers themselves as well as between the students and lecturers. .
Participation: The course is intended for advanced graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from all over the world. Cost: registration fee: $360, hotel accommodation fees: $490. Financial support will be granted based on requests made during application. For program details and application forms please refer to IAS website.
url: http://www.as.huji.ac.il/workshops/global_warming
January 12-16 , 2009
Organizers: Isaac Held, Eli Tziperman
Confirmed lecturers:
Brian Mapes University of Miami
Sylvie Joussaume LSCE, France
Dan Schrag Harvard
Dennis Hartmann University of Washington, Seattle
Eli Tziperman Harvard
Hezi Gildor Weizmann Institute
Isaac Held GFDL, Princeton
Jim McWilliams UCLA
Jochem Marotzke MPI, Hamburg
Kerry Emanuel MIT
Peter Huybers Harvard
The range of warming predicted for the globally averaged surface temperature as a result of a doubling of CO2 due to human activities has been around 1.5-4.5 degree Celsius for over 20 years now. As we learn more about the climate system, the corresponding models become more detailed and realistic but the range of predicted warming has not decreased substantially. The aim of the workshop is to discuss explicit ideas on reducing uncertainty. Such ideas can be classified into two groups, which we might call reductive and holistic. The first consists of improving the parametrization of processes that occur on a scale too small to be modeled explicitly, such as ocean mixing, clouds etc. The second uses observations (past climate variability on all time scales, the observed response of climate to recent volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo, the warming over the 20th century, etc) to tell us something about climate sensitivity. The workshop will combine individuals involved in the effort to minimize climate prediction uncertainty using both approaches, in the hope of stimulating a discussion between these two communities, and to educate a group of advanced graduate students and post docs to be aware of both approaches, their strengths and their weaknesses. Specific hypotheses for the lack of progress in reducing uncertainty will be discussed, including arguments on the structural stability of climate models with respect to parameterized processes, as well as approaches which might be taken to address this problem in the near future. The format will be of a few detailed lectures a day, allowing for a large portion of time dedicated to informal discussions among the lecturers themselves as well as between the students and lecturers. .
Participation: The course is intended for advanced graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from all over the world. Cost: registration fee: $360, hotel accommodation fees: $490. Financial support will be granted based on requests made during application. For program details and application forms please refer to IAS website.
url: http://www.as.huji.ac.il/workshops/global_warming