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aboobacker
10th January 2005, 06:50 PM
Credits: www.welcome2goa.com (http://www.welcome2goa.com/)


West coast almost safe from tsunami waves: Dr. S R Shetye. Director, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa

According to existing records, the seismic activity in and around the Arabian Sea is non-existent and hence the possibility of a tsunami hitting the west coast of India is negligible, the National Institute of Oceanography Director, Dr Satish Shetye, said today.

Dr Shetye was answering questions from the media after he made a presentation to them on 'An intro to tsunamis; with special reference to the events of December 26, 2004'.

Dr Shetye said tsunamis were caused by ocean floor disturbances arising out of three factors - earthquakes, volcanic explosions and sub-marine landslides or mudslides. He also presented a chart that showed nil seismic activity in and around the Arabian Sea. On the other hand, the entire rim of the Pacific Ocean was shown full of seismic activity and was therefore called the 'Rim of Fire'. But the link between earthquakes and tsunamis was not so straightforward, Dr Shetye said.

Post-tsunami, the central government has convened a special meeting in Delhi on January 22 and 23 and invited experts from around the world, including experts associated with the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre. Reportedly, the efficiency of the system employed in the Pacific Ocean is good, Dr Shetye said.

The NIO is also involved in half-a-dozen activities and various groups of its scientists will study different aspects of the tsunami. Dr Shetye said scientists of the NIO and the National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research would leave on a cruise of the Andamans to study what actually happened. Another group would work with the Survey of India to chart out wave patterns that may help to evolve useful models for the future.

Referring to the Sumatra-tsunami, the death toll of which has now risen to over 1,50,000 people, Dr Shetye said that based on empirical data, the probability of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean was very small. Hence no attention was paid to the Indian Ocean and its floor did not have any instrumentation to monitor any kind of disturbances there.

Supporting his claims, Dr Shetye cited empirical data on the percentage distribution of tsunami's in the world's oceans. With 25.4 per cent, the Pacific Ocean has the highest occurrence of tsunamis, the East Indies has 20.3 per cent, Japan-Russia has 18.6 per cent and in the Bay of Bengal, the percentage is only 0.8.

"It was a low probability but high impact event. With more than 1.5 lakh people killed, this is the biggest killer tsunami in the recorded history of the world," Dr Shetye said

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Source: NT Staff Reporter

sharief77
11th January 2005, 05:32 PM
I am not sure/clear why shetye was saying west coast safe! The recent Tsunami took more than 300 people from the Allapatt Panchayat of Kollam. As far I am aware a season storms/ swell flood this area.

aboobacker
11th January 2005, 05:53 PM
No coast safe from wave of destruction:Chris de Freitas

See

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=466&ObjectID=9005432

rocksea
12th January 2005, 03:21 AM
Must have meant a direct impact of tsunami on the west coast
as seismic activity is less (non-existent??) in the Arabian Sea.

In year 1945 [ http://www.nio.org/jsp/tsunami.jsp ] but there was
a tsunami washing off the gujarat-mumbai coast.. what about that?
That was from an 8.5 Richter scale earthquake at a distance of about
100km south of Karachi.

anand
12th January 2005, 04:24 AM
i think wht roxy said is right.. he meant to say that the west coast have a lesser impact in comparison with the east coast...

skdash
14th January 2005, 08:30 AM
Dear fellow members,

Anycoast is not safe. If we will goto Mythological age (Dwapara Yuga) ..Dwaraka is submerged due to Tsunami (Recently one of the scientist of NIOT told in front Media). which they discovered in 1998 by NIOT Group and they recovered many statues from the sea floor along Gujurat coast. If Dwaraka is submerged and we will believe that it concide with our recent scientific evidence then How west coast is safe ?

In 1945 also we have seen Tsunami along Gujurat and Mumbai coast.
26, Dec 2004 Tsunami took several lives in Kerala coast. after recent earthquake in sumatra scientist claiming that shape of Indian Plate is moving. There fore shape of India is also changing (I mean minute level).

Even people killed in East africa by the recent tsunami which is very from the sumatra. also in 1960 chile earthquake and its tsunami migrated to hawaii and japan. that means the waves can propagate thousand killometers and takes lives. so what is the guarntee that our west coast is safe ?

so let's not discuss aftermath due to tsunami and it is a big challenge for scientific community about its forecasting.

regards
Skdash

niranj
19th January 2005, 06:07 AM
Credits : The Week
Source : http://www.the-week.com/25jan09/currentevents_article10.htm

Here are some observations about the vulnerability of the west coast,
by Dr Arun Bapat, former chief research officer of earthquake engineering
wing of Indian Meteorology Department at Pune

India’s western coast experienced a tsunami after an earthquake in the
Arabian Sea of 8.25 magnitude on November 27, 1945. The wave was 12
m-high at Kandla and 1.5 m in Mumbai. In Karwar and Mangalore it had
dwarfed to 20 cm. The tide at the time of tsunami is significant in determining
its height. The wave on the Tamil Nadu coast was about 12 m high. It hit
between 9.30 a.m. and 10.45 a.m., close to high tide. And it was full moon
day. Had it hit four hours before or after high tide, the damage would have
been less.

The geophysical conditions that determine the vulnerability of an area are:
1) Potential to produce tsunamigenic earthquakes.
2) The distance between the seismic region and the coast is at least 500 km.
3) There is only water between the epicentre and the coast.

I scanned the Catalogue of Earthquakes in India to identify areas that fulfil
these conditions. One is south of Karachi where the 1945 earthquake that
caused a 1.5 m-high wave in Mumbai originated. It could be 50 per cent
higher at high tide. Another area is the junction of the Indian, African and
Arabian plates near Socotra Island. On March 31, 1954, an earthquake here
of 7.2 magnitude resulted in a ‘high tide’. The third is the underwater
Carlsberg Ridge in northern Indian Ocean, which has no record of tsunami.

So the first two regions have the potential to produce a maximum 3 m-high
tsunami in Mumbai. At high tide, it could be 30 to 50 cm higher. These
observations are applicable to the entire west coast.